1　Energy Reserve and Security
　　1.1　Are Conventional Energy Sources Depleting
　　Conventional energy sources are normally regarded as reliable, easily extractable and accessible; while they, except hydro, are also characterized by being non�瞨enewable. Commentators are either pessimistic and concerned with the sustainability of those energy sources or optimistic and confident of technological improvement. Their viewpoints are grouped as Voice A and Voice B standing for different attitudes towards the issue.
　　Coal
　　Voice A
　　Many experts claim that conventional energy sources are exhaustible and no longer reliable, and they will not run out suddenly but diminish at a speed during a period ranging from decades to one or two hundred years. Hubbert�餾 peak theory predicted that coal and natural gas production would follow a logistic curve similar to that of oil due to their finite reserves. Virtually after centuries of mineral exploration, coal reservoirs in most countries are mature. Considering the growing gap between energy supply and energy demand, these sources will deplete at a faster rate, which means the increasing imbalance between coal production and consumption due to a declining supply of accessible coal.
　　Voice B
　　Coal reserves are available in almost every country worldwide, with recoverable reserves in around 70 countries. Improvements of technologies promise the access to more coal resources.
　　First, new reserves are discovered through ongoing and improved exploration activities. Second, advances in mining techniques will allow previously inaccessible reserves available. Data from BP World Energy Statistics 2013　shows that in 2012, global coal production was 7.86 billion tons, a 2% increase from one year earlier. Ten countries�� production exceeded a hundred million tons in 2012. Most of the major coal producers except China and the U.S. showed growth in different degrees.
　　Petroleum
　　Voice A
　　Petroleum is the most essential resource with the largest share in global energy consumption. However, its sustainability is challenged since 1956, when King Hubbert put forward “Peak Oil Theory”. His “Peak Oil Theory” is based on the concept that the amount of petroleum under the ground in any region is finite, therefore, for any given geographical area, from an individual oil�瞤roducing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell�瞫haped curve—the rate of extraction which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum, and after 40 years when half of the petroleum has been extracted, the rate will decline and a period of petroleum depletion will follow.In other words, when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction has been reached, subsequent methods of extraction cannot increase the rate further.
　　He predicted that the petroleum production in American 48 states would reach peak in 1970s and petroleum production would fall after 40 years of extraction. This prediction has been proved. Since 1970s the production of petroleum in the contiguous 48 states, except Alaska and Hawaii, of United States have began to decline. Despite technology leap in oil exploration and extraction, and derrick quantity in United States is 4 times that of 1970s, its crude oil production is still only half of 1970.
　　Conventional petroleum producing regions have been extracted for more than 140 years and become less productive. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its 2008 Word Energy Outlook that the “rate of decline in existing oil fields goes from 3.7% to 6.7% per year”. In Europe where industrial revolution originated, many of the oil fields have already peaked and there is slight chance, if possible, to exploit new petroleum fields. The UK oil supply has been declined since 1999. Norway followed in 2001. Some experts agree that if the world has not already reached peak petroleum production, then it will do so within the next 20 years.
　　Increasing levels of activity and technological intervention are indispensible to maintain or slow declines in output. Non�瞔onventional petroleum sources including tar sands　tar sand, deep water oil and shale oil require large amount of energy for extraction. Consequently, less petroleum production will be realized at higher cost. The world�餾 current economic growth is powered by the cheap, easily extractable, good quality petroleum. Since all economic sectors rely heavily on petroleum, peak oil could lead to a “partial or complete failure of markets” or, simply an orderly transition to 100% renewable energy, within as short as a decade . Biofuels (primarily ethanol, but also biodiesel) will continue to supplement petroleum. However their output levels are too low to displace local oil production. How far can we go without this gift from nature?
　　Voice B
　　The opposite voice is that there is a great potential in oil production. There are two sources for this increase. First, the growth in oil production capacity would come from OPEC and non�睴PEC countries. The largest non�睴PEC growth would come expectedly from Canada, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Azerbaijan, Angola and Russia. Growth would also occur in OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Algeria and Libya. The oil industry is governed by a “l(fā)aw of long�瞝ead times” and much of the new capacity would become available. Second, a common pattern in the shortage periods is to underestimate the impact of technology. As skills improved, output from many producing regions would be much greater than anticipated. In fact, world’s remaining proved petroleum reserves keep increasing thanks to the updated technology, as it is revealed by the statistics in Figure 1.1.
　　Unconventional oil resources (Canadian oil sands, deep water oil and shale oil) are another supply to current oil need. The unconventional will cease being frontier and instead become conventional. 85% of unconventional oil reserves are concentrated in the areas of Ashabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River　Peace River in Alberta, Canada. Canada’s proven oil sand reserves in 2011 were 170 billion barrels , only behind the reserves of Saudi Arabia. China ranks 5th in oil sand reserves. There are many areas to be explored, such as deep strata　and offshore deep water parts, which imply more oil and gas reservoirs.
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