馬林科·波維奇是一位塞爾維亞裔加拿大學(xué)者，現(xiàn)任教于位于荷蘭萊頓大學(xué)海牙校區(qū)的安全及國(guó)際事務(wù)學(xué)院，主講國(guó)際關(guān)系與外交碩士課程。波維奇曾在意大利特倫托大學(xué)獲得國(guó)際關(guān)系博士學(xué)位，并在萊頓大學(xué)獲得國(guó)際關(guān)系及外交碩士學(xué)位。
波維奇主攻國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略、地緣政治、沖突與資源、有組織犯罪以及爭(zhēng)議地區(qū)等方面的研究，著作包括《俄羅斯的領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端戰(zhàn)略》、《跨國(guó)有組織犯罪與恐怖主義》、《意大利黑手黨：發(fā)展中國(guó)家的暴力產(chǎn)業(yè)》、《從發(fā)展角度再探世界系統(tǒng)分析》、《叛亂、內(nèi)戰(zhàn)與國(guó)際支持》以及《情緒可視化：國(guó)歌與戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)》等學(xué)術(shù)書(shū)籍及論文。此前，波維奇曾任職于多國(guó)政府部門(mén)及非政府組織，負(fù)責(zé)實(shí)用政策分析、咨詢、政策監(jiān)督以及兵棋推演等工作內(nèi)容。波維奇能夠流利地運(yùn)用英語(yǔ)、塞爾維亞語(yǔ)、克羅地亞語(yǔ)以及波斯尼亞語(yǔ)進(jìn)行溝通及寫(xiě)作。
章概論··········································································· 001
本書(shū)的內(nèi)容架構(gòu)···························································· 019
第二章小國(guó)非對(duì)稱沖突理論概述············································· 021
- 戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的理性主義解讀··················································· 024
- 非對(duì)稱沖突理論························································· 028
- 小國(guó)的安全策略························································· 033
- 小國(guó)的作戰(zhàn)策略························································· 037
- 沖突條件列表···························································· 042
第三章運(yùn)用定性比較分析法（QCA）闡釋沖突的發(fā)展途徑········· 051
- 非對(duì)稱沖突分析的操作化············································· 058
1.1 案例選擇······························································ 059
1.2 爭(zhēng)端結(jié)果······························································ 064
1.3 沖突條件······························································ 065
1.4 分配分值······························································
- 小國(guó)選擇沖突的途徑··················································· 069
- 討論······································································· 076
第四章伊拉克：與美國(guó)及三十三個(gè)盟國(guó)的軍事沖突···················· 084
- 海灣危機(jī)的傳統(tǒng)解讀··················································· 085
- 必要條件：經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)·················································· 092
2.1 兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)意外失利··················································· 092
2.2 經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)······························································ 094
2.3 政權(quán)形象崩潰························································· 101
2.4 庫(kù)爾德問(wèn)題··························································· 102
- 異常信念：INUS 條件················································ 103
3.1 霍布斯主義世界觀·············································· 104
3.2 暴力傾向······························································ 105
3.3 自戀主義······························································ 111
3.4 心理異常······························································ 113
3.5 對(duì)于美國(guó)的錯(cuò)誤認(rèn)識(shí)················································· 115
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