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裝備體系貢獻率評估——理論、方法與應(yīng)用 
定 價：98 元 叢書名：體系工程與裝備論證系列叢書
9 7 4 8 6 7 9 1 5 2 8 1 9 讀者對象:本書可作為裝備論證部門、試驗鑒定基地和國防工業(yè)總體部開展裝備規(guī)劃論證等工作的參考書，也可以作為系統(tǒng)工程專業(yè)研究生實踐教學(xué)的參考書。 
本書包含三篇內(nèi)容。第一篇為體系貢獻率評估理論，主要從裝備的體系化發(fā)展與運用要求出發(fā)，建立了體系貢獻率評估的研究框架，梳理了支撐貢獻率研究的體系工程、系統(tǒng)科學(xué)等方面的基礎(chǔ)理論，構(gòu)建了評估基準流程和指標框架，并在每個流程中都有一系列方法作為技術(shù)支撐。第二篇為體系貢獻率評估方法，主要以典型裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率評估方法為基礎(chǔ)，分別從基于OODA的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法、面向使命任務(wù)的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法，以及面向規(guī)劃計劃的項目體系貢獻率評估方法三方面開展評估方法研究。第三篇為體系貢獻率評估應(yīng)用，主要圍繞裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率和裝備項目體系貢獻率兩方面的典型案例進行應(yīng)用驗證。本書可作為戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃部門、裝備論證部門、試驗鑒定基地和國防工業(yè)總體部門開展裝備規(guī)劃論證、裝備體系建設(shè)與運用等工作的參考書，也可以作為系統(tǒng)工程專業(yè)研究生實踐教學(xué)的參考書。
李小波，男，湖南衡南人。2013年獲得國防科技大學(xué)系統(tǒng)工程專業(yè)博士學(xué)位，現(xiàn)為國防科技大學(xué)系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)院副教授，中國仿真學(xué)會人工社會專委會委員。主要研究方向為戰(zhàn)略管理與仿真預(yù)實踐、體系設(shè)計與貢獻率評估。發(fā)表系統(tǒng)工程、建模仿真論文50余篇，其中SCI檢索10余篇，獲得國家發(fā)明專利4項。第一作者論文獲得2012亞洲仿真會議最佳論文獎、2018年中國仿真大會優(yōu)秀論文獎。
第一篇 體系貢獻率評估理論
第1 章 體系貢獻率評估概述·························································.002 1.1 戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃視野下的體系貢獻率問題背景···································.002 1.1.1 體系貢獻率：使命組織發(fā)展的核心價值觀························.002 1.1.2 面向戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃研究的體系貢獻率問題分析························.004 1.2 體系貢獻率的概念特性························································.008 1.2.1 體系貢獻率的概念內(nèi)涵················································.008 1.2.2 體系貢獻率的基本特性················································.011 1.3 體系貢獻率評估的研究框架··················································.012 1.3.1 問題域研究框架·························································.012 1.3.2 技術(shù)域研究框架·························································.014 1.3.3 總體研究框架····························································.014 1.4 體系貢獻率評估的研究進展··················································.015 1.4.1 國內(nèi)研究進展綜述······················································.015 1.4.2 國外研究進展綜述······················································.023 1.4.3 研究進展小結(jié)····························································.026 1.4.4 重點研究方向····························································.027 第2 章 體系貢獻率評估的基礎(chǔ)理論··············································.029 2.1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)與復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)···························································.029 2.1.1 復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的凈貢獻概念················································.029 2.1.2 復(fù)雜適應(yīng)系統(tǒng)理論······················································.029 2.1.3 復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論····························································.030 2.1.4 超網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論·······························································.030 2.2 體系工程與能力機理···························································.031 2.2.1 體系貢獻率的能力基準：基于能力的體系工程思想············.031 2.2.2 體系貢獻率的作用原理：體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)任務(wù)鏈路動量原理·········.035 2.2.3 體系貢獻率的成因機理：體系協(xié)同、適應(yīng)與層次涌現(xiàn)特性···.037 2.2.4 體系貢獻率的能力培育：作戰(zhàn)體系能力生成周期模型·········.040 2.3 體系能力與效能及特性評估··················································.040 2.3.1 體系能力評估····························································.041 2.3.2 體系效能評估····························································.048 2.3.3 體系特性評估····························································.050 2.4 體系仿真實驗與認知演化計算···············································.052 2.4.1 體系仿真實驗····························································.052 2.4.2 認知演化計算····························································.058 2.4.3 體系動力學(xué)仿真·························································.064 第3 章 體系貢獻率評估的基準流程··············································.065 3.1 體系貢獻率評估需求分析·····················································.065 3.1.1 國家安全戰(zhàn)略需求分析················································.066 3.1.2 重要作戰(zhàn)方向分析······················································.067 3.1.3 體系使命能力分析······················································.068 3.1.4 作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)活動分析······················································.069 3.1.5 裝備功能要求分析······················································.070 3.1.6 裝備評估需求分析······················································.071 3.2 體系貢獻率評估方案設(shè)計·····················································.072 3.2.1 明確評估問題對象······················································.072 3.2.2 設(shè)置軍事作戰(zhàn)想定······················································.075 3.2.3 構(gòu)建評估指標框架······················································.076 3.2.4 擬制總體評估方案······················································.077 3.3 體系貢獻率全局能力評估·····················································.078 3.3.1 能力評估模型構(gòu)建······················································.079 3.3.2 多源數(shù)據(jù)獲取融合······················································.080 3.3.3 能力評估模型解算······················································.081 3.3.4 能力貢獻結(jié)果計算······················································.081 3.3.5 能力評估結(jié)果分析······················································.082 3.4 體系貢獻率重點效能評估·····················································.083 3.4.1 效能評估方案制定······················································.084 3.4.2 效能仿真想定設(shè)置······················································.084 3.4.3 效能仿真實驗設(shè)計······················································.085 3.4.4 仿真模型開發(fā)集成······················································.085 3.4.5 仿真實驗運行表現(xiàn)······················································.086 3.4.6 效能貢獻計算分析······················································.086 3.5 體系貢獻率能效綜合評估·····················································.087 3.5.1 效能-能力聚合評估····················································.088 3.5.2 能力-效能迭代評估····················································.088 3.5.3 能力-效能定量建模····················································.089 3.5.4 綜合貢獻評估解算······················································.090 3.6 體系貢獻率評估結(jié)果分析·····················································.090 3.6.1 評估結(jié)果機理分析······················································.091 3.6.2 評估結(jié)果多維展現(xiàn)······················································.091 3.6.3 評估結(jié)果決策支持······················································.092 第4 章 體系貢獻率評估指標框架··················································.094 4.1 基于體系能力的指標框架·····················································.094 4.1.1 支持貢獻率評估的體系能力模型····································.094 4.1.2 面向全域關(guān)鍵能力的體系貢獻率評估指標框架··················.096 4.1.3 基于功能-能力聚合的體系貢獻率評估指標框架·················.098 4.1.4 基于改進結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型的體系作戰(zhàn)能力評估指標框架·········.099 4.2 基于體系效能的指標框架·····················································.102 4.2.1 籃球賽高階綜合評估指標借鑒·······································.102 4.2.2 基于目標任務(wù)鏈路效能的指標框架·································.104 4.2.3 基于使命任務(wù)活動效能的指標框架·································.105 4.2.4 基于體系對抗場景效能的指標框架·································.107 4.3 基于能力生成機理的指標框架···············································.109 4.3.1 緊扣體系能力生成機理，以適應(yīng)度、影響度和重要度為核心··.110 4.3.2 能力與效能指標相結(jié)合，基于效能進行能力評估與驗證······.111 4.3.3 靜態(tài)戰(zhàn)術(shù)技術(shù)指標與動態(tài)使命任務(wù)指標綜合·····················.112 4.3.4 基于整體論思想探索體系整體性指標······························.112 4.3.5 綜合考慮成本效益等方面的因素，構(gòu)建全面的指標框架······.114 4.3.6 根據(jù)裝備種類、問題層次和發(fā)展階段有針對性地建立具體的 綜合性指標框架·························································.114 第二篇 體系貢獻率評估方法 第5 章 典型裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率評估方法····································.116 5.1 基于能力的體系貢獻率評估方法············································.116 5.1.1 基于作戰(zhàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的能力貢獻率評估方法······························.116 5.1.2 基于結(jié)構(gòu)的能力貢獻率評估方法····································.119 5.1.3 基于RIMER 的能力貢獻率評估方法·······························.121 5.1.4 基于架構(gòu)與矩陣范數(shù)的多維度能力貢獻率評估方法············.122 5.2 基于效能的體系貢獻率評估方法············································.128 5.2.1 基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的效能貢獻率評估方法···························.128 5.2.2 基于作戰(zhàn)環(huán)的效能貢獻率評估方法·································.130 5.2.3 基于深度置信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的效能貢獻率評估方法························.133 5.2.4 基于價值中心法的效能貢獻率評估方法···························.136 5.3 體系貢獻率綜合評估方法·····················································.137 5.3.1 基于AHP 的定性-定量綜合評估方法······························.137 5.3.2 基于SEM 的能力-效能綜合評估方法······························.141 5.3.3 基于MMF-OODA 的結(jié)構(gòu)-行為綜合評估方法····················.144 5.3.4 多類型體系貢獻率綜合評估方法····································.145 第6 章 基于OODA 的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法·····················.149 6.1 能效綜合評估方法的原理·····················································.149 6.2 能效綜合評估方法的實施步驟···············································.150 6.3 體系貢獻率評估模型框架·····················································.152 6.4 評估方法的關(guān)鍵支撐技術(shù)·····················································.153 6.4.1 基于OODA 功能回路的體系網(wǎng)絡(luò)建模與分析····················.153 6.4.2 基于效能仿真數(shù)據(jù)的OODA 功能回路分析·······················.159 6.4.3 基于認知計算的能力-效能綜合評估·······························.168 6.5 案例研究··········································································.169 第7 章 面向使命任務(wù)的體系貢獻率能效綜合評估方法···················.175 7.1 面向使命任務(wù)的能效綜合評估方法框架···································.175 7.1.1 評估問題的輸入與輸出················································.175 7.1.2 體系貢獻率的評估過程················································.176 7.1.3 能效綜合分析與評估框架·············································.180 7.2 基于定量HOQ 的指標關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系分析·······································.181 7.2.1 HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)建························································.181 7.2.2 基于仿真實驗的QFD 矩陣構(gòu)建過程································.184 7.3 基于組合賦權(quán)TOPSIS 的體系集成方案對比······························.186 7.3.1 TOPSIS····································································.186 7.3.2 使命任務(wù)需求滿足度評估·············································.186 7.3.3 體系貢獻率計算·························································.188 7.4 案例研究··········································································.188 7.4.1 案例背景··································································.188 7.4.2 實驗結(jié)果及評定·························································.190 7.4.3 結(jié)果分析··································································.193 第8 章 面向規(guī)劃計劃的項目體系貢獻率評估方法··························.194 8.1 基于能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻率評估方法····················.194 8.1.1 問題背景分析····························································.194 8.1.2 評估方法的總體框架···················································.199 8.1.3 實施步驟··································································.200 8.2 基于聯(lián)合使命任務(wù)線程的項目體系貢獻率評估方法····················.205 8.2.1 聯(lián)合使命任務(wù)線程概述················································.205 8.2.2 實施步驟··································································.207 8.2.3 案例研究··································································.210 第三篇 體系貢獻率評估應(yīng)用 第9 章 裝備系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率評估應(yīng)用案例····································.216 9.1 體系貢獻率評估方法頂層應(yīng)用流程·········································.216 9.2 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率的宏觀論證·········································.217 9.2.1 基于QFD 的巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率需求分析····················.218 9.2.2 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)需求分析中HOQ 的構(gòu)造過程·························.221 9.2.3 “國家安全戰(zhàn)略需求—重要作戰(zhàn)方向”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·······.229 9.2.4 “重要作戰(zhàn)方向—體系使命能力”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.230 9.2.5 “體系使命能力—作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)清單”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.232 9.2.6 “作戰(zhàn)任務(wù)清單—裝備功能需求”HOQ 矩陣的構(gòu)造·············.234 9.2.7 基于能力需求滿足度的體系貢獻率宏觀論證分析···············.236 9.3 巡飛彈系統(tǒng)體系貢獻率的型號裝備論證···································.237 9.3.1 基于CCI-CTI 的仿真想定設(shè)置分析·································.237 9.3.2 仿真想定設(shè)定····························································.238 9.3.3 仿真應(yīng)用開發(fā)····························································.239 9.3.4 仿真實驗設(shè)計····························································.241 9.3.5 效能貢獻率評估分析···················································.243 第10 章 裝備項目體系貢獻率評估應(yīng)用案例··································.246 10.1 智能化無人作戰(zhàn)力量體系建設(shè)需求········································.246 10.1.1 無人裝備建設(shè)與發(fā)展趨勢···········································.246 10.1.2 基于“馬賽克戰(zhàn)”的無人作戰(zhàn)力量規(guī)劃計劃與體系籌劃設(shè)計·······.250 10.2 “馬賽克戰(zhàn)”作戰(zhàn)體系能力生成周期模型的構(gòu)建·······················.257 10.3 項目與作戰(zhàn)體系能力關(guān)聯(lián)建模··············································.258 10.4 基于能力生成周期模型的項目體系貢獻率評估·························.265 參考文獻························································································.267
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