草原火災案例分析、火行為分析和災情模擬重現(xiàn)是實現(xiàn)草原火災風險管理三個主題的重要方法。這些也是本書的核心內(nèi)容。本書的出版是對草原火災風險評估技術(shù)研究階段性工作的總結(jié)和整理。本書通過對草原火災案例分析實現(xiàn)草原火災時空分布規(guī)律研究；利用室內(nèi)外點火實驗和案例分析對草原火行為特征進行研究；在草原火行為分析基礎上，借助元胞自動機實現(xiàn)草原火災動態(tài)蔓延模擬；借助遙感和地理信息技術(shù)以及蒙特卡羅方法實現(xiàn)草原火災風險評估，并提出草原火災風險評估應用方式。取得重要研究成果
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目錄
序
前言
第1章緒論1
1.1背景與意義4
1.1.1研究背景4
1.1.2研究目的和意義7
1.2研究前沿與進展10
1.2.1草原火行為研究進展及評述11
1.2.2草原火險研究進展及評述14
1.2.3草原火災災情評價研究進展及評述19
1.2.4草原火災風險研究進展及評述20
1.2.5草原火災模擬進展及評述24
1.3草原火災風險評價的系統(tǒng)理論分析研究27
1.3.1草原火災相關(guān)的概念分析28
1.3.2草原火災風險評價的理論基礎29
1.3.3草原火災風險系統(tǒng)的復雜性分析30
1.4本書的內(nèi)容與框架32
1.4.1主要研究內(nèi)容32
1.4.2本研究中存在的關(guān)鍵問題35
1.4.3技術(shù)路線36
第2章我國北方草原地表可燃物時空演變39
2.1我國北方草原基礎地理概況40
2.1.1地理位置與行政區(qū)劃40
2.1.2自然地理環(huán)境42
2.1.3社會經(jīng)濟環(huán)境43
2.2基于植被指數(shù)的草原可燃物時空演變分析44
2.2.1常用的植被指數(shù)44
2.2.2基于植被指數(shù)的草原生物量計算46
2.2.3基于植被指數(shù)的草原可燃物量計算49
第3章我國北方草原火災時空規(guī)律分析543.1研究區(qū)草原火災歷史概況54
3.1.1研究區(qū)草原火災防火概況54
3.1.2研究區(qū)防火減災能力概況55
3.2我國北方草原火災時空格局分析56
3.2.1起火原因調(diào)查分析58
3.2.2草原火災的分布規(guī)律61
3.3我國北方重大草原火災時間序列預測64
3.3.1基于非線性理論的草原火災時間序列預測64
3.3.2灰色系統(tǒng)預測法65
3.3.3馬爾可夫預測67
3.3.4灰色馬爾可夫預測68
3.4我國北方草原火災災損規(guī)律的模糊判別分析69
3.4.1基于信息擴散理論的草原火災發(fā)生概率分析70
3.4.2基于信息矩陣的草原火災次數(shù)與損失模糊關(guān)系分析73
第4章我國北方草原火行為特征分析78
4.1天氣條件對草原火災的影響分析78
4.1.1水分條件對草原火災的影響79
4.1.2溫度對草原火災的影響81
4.1.3風對草原火災的影響84
4.1.4干旱對草原火災的影響85
4.2可燃物特征對草原火災的影響分析87
4.2.1可燃物含水率對起火影響分析87
4.2.2可燃物特征與火行為參數(shù)關(guān)系89
4.2.3可燃物的火強度91
4.3不同火環(huán)境下的火行為分析92
4.3.1天氣條件對草原火災傳播速度影響分析93
4.3.2地形對草原火傳播速度影響分析93
4.3.3綜合因素影響下的草原火蔓延速度分析93
第5章基于火行為分析的草原火災蔓延模擬99
5.1基于元胞自動機的草原火災蔓延模擬99
5.1.1格網(wǎng)定義101
5.1.2格網(wǎng)狀態(tài)101
5.1.3演化規(guī)則101
5.1.4風向和風速的影響103
5.1.5草原火災擴散概率104
5.1.6蔓延時間的確定104
5.1.7蔓延模擬流程105
5.2案例研究106
5.2.1研究區(qū)地理背景106
5.2.2草原火災情境還原108
5.2.3草原火災蔓延場景模擬可視化108
5.3草原火災動態(tài)蔓延結(jié)果驗證109
第6章基于草地類型的草原火災風險評價研究112
6.1草原火災風險的基本理論112
6.1.1草原火災風險形成機理112
6.1.2草原火災風險評價框架115
6.2研究區(qū)概況與數(shù)據(jù)來源115
6.2.1研究區(qū)概況115
6.2.2數(shù)據(jù)來源與處理116
6.3草原火災風險評價指標體系117
6.3.1草原火災危險性分析117
6.3.2草原火災暴露性分析122
6.3.3草原火災脆弱性分析122
6.3.4草原火災管理能力分析122
6.3.5草原火災風險評價指標體系122
6.3.6草原火災風險指標權(quán)重確定123
6.4我國北方草原火災風險綜合評價124
6.4.1我國北方草原火災危險性評價125
6.4.2我國北方草原火災暴露性評價125
6.4.3我國北方草原火災脆弱性評價127
6.4.4我國北方草原火災管理能力評價127
6.4.5我國北方草原火災綜合風險評價結(jié)果128
6.5基于火行為模擬的草原火災動態(tài)風險評價131
6.5.1草原火災動態(tài)風險評價概念框架131
6.5.2草原火災動態(tài)風險評價指標體系131
6.5.3草原火災動態(tài)風險評價模型133
6.6草原火災風險評價結(jié)果的驗證138
6.6.1靜態(tài)風險評價結(jié)果的驗證138
6.6.2動態(tài)風險評價結(jié)果的驗證139
6.6.3敏感性分析141
6.6.4風險評價結(jié)果的不確定性分析146
第7章草原火災風險評價在火災管理中的應用研究147
7.1草原火災風險評價應用研究147
7.1.1草原火災風險管理過程147
7.1.2靜態(tài)草原火災風險評價的應用148
7.1.3動態(tài)草原火災風險評價的應用150
7.2草原火災風險評價與動態(tài)模擬耦合研究150
7.2.1靜態(tài)與動態(tài)草原火災風險評價的耦合研究150
7.2.2草原火災風險評價與草原火災蔓延耦合研究151
第8章結(jié)論與展望153
8.1取得結(jié)論153
8.2展望和未來要開展的工作154
8.2.1下一步的研究重點154
8.2.2草原火災風險評價應用研究155
8.2.3草原火災生態(tài)影響評價155
參考文獻156
彩圖
ContentsPreliminaryForewordChapter1Introduction1
1.1Backgroundandsignificance4
1.1.1Background4
1.1.2Purposeandsignificance7
1.2Frontierandprogress10
1.2.1Progressandreviewofgrasslandfirebehavior11
1.2.2Progressandreviewofgrasslandfiredanger14
1.2.3Progressandreviewofgrasslandfirelossesassessment19
1.2.4Progressandreviewofgrasslandfireriskassessment20
1.2.5Progressandreviewofgrasslandfiresimulation24
1.3Systemtheoryanalysisofgrasslandfireriskassessment27
1.3.1Conceptanalysisofgrasslandfire28
1.3.2Theoreticalbasisofgrasslandfireriskassessment29
1.3.3Complexityanalysisofgrasslandfirerisksystem30
1.4Contentsandframework32
1.4.1Contents32
1.4.2Keyproblems35
1.4.3Techniqueflow36
Chapter2TemporalandspatialevolutionofthesurfacefuelinthenortherngrasslandofCinah39
2.1GeneralsituationofgrasslandinnorthernCinah40
2.1.1Locationandadministrativedivision40
2.1.2Naturalgeographicalenvironment42
2.1.3Socialandeconomicenvironment43
2.2Analysisoftemporalandspatialevolutionofthesurfacefuelbasedonvegetationindex44
2.2.1Severalvegetationindex44
2.2.2Calculationofgrasslandbiomassbasedonvegetationindex46
2.2.3Calculationofthesurfacefuelquantityofgrasslandbasedonvegetationindex49
Chapter3TemporalandspatialfeaturesofgrasslandfiresinnorthernCinah54
3.1Overviewofgrasslandfirehistoryinthestudyarea54
3.1.1Overviewofgrasslandfireinthestudyarea54
3.1.2Overviewoffiredisasterreductionabilityinthestudyarea55
3.2TemporalandspatialsituationofgrasslandfiresinnorthernCinah56
3.2.1Investigationandanalysisofthecauseofthefire58
3.2.2Distributionfeaturesofgrasslandfire61
3.3TimeseriesforecastingofseveregrasslandfireinnorthernCinah64
3.3.1Timeseriesforecastingofgrasslandfirebasedonnonlineartheory64
3.3.2Greysystemforecastmethod65
3.3.3Markovforecastmethod67
3.3.4GreyMarkovFrecastinogmethod68
3.4FuzzyanalysisoffiredisasterdamagesinnorthernCinah69
3.4.1Analysisofgrasslandfireoccurrenceprobabilitybasedoninformationdiffusiontheory70
3.4.2Fuzzyrelationshipanalysisofthenumberandlossofgrasslandfirebasedoninformationmatrix73
Chapter4CharacteristicanalysisofgrasslandfirebehaviorinnorthernCinah78
4.1Analysisoftheinfluenceofweatherconditionsongrasslandfire78
4.1.1Effectofhumidityconditionongrasslandfire79
4.1.2Effectoftemperatureongrasslandfire81
4.1.3Effectofwindongrasslandfire84
4.1.4Effectofdroughtongrasslandfire85
4.2Analysisoftheeffectoffuelcharacteristicsongrasslandfire87
4.2.1Analysisontheinfluenceofmoisturecontentoffuelonfire87
4.2.2Relationshipbetweenfuelcharacteristicsandfirebehaviorparameters89
4.2.3Fireintensityofsurfacefuel914.3Analysisoffirebehaviorunderdifferentfireconditions92
4.3.1Analysisoftheinfluenceofweatherconditionsonthepropagationspeedofgrasslandfire93
4.3.2Analysisoftheeffectoftopographyonthepropagationvelocityofgrasslandfire93
4.3.3Analysisofgrasslandfirespreadrateundertheinfluenceofsyntheticfactors93
Chapter5Grasslandfirespreadingsimulationbasedonfirebehavioranalysis99
5.1SimulationofgrasslandfirespreadbasedontheCllulareautomaton99
5.1.1Thedefinitionofgrid101
5.1.2Thestateofgrid101
5.1.3Evolutionrule101
5.1.4Theinfluenceofwinddirectionandspeed103
5.1.5Grasslandfirespreadprobability104
5.1.6Determinationofspreadingtime104
5.1.7Theprocessofgrasslandfirespreadingsimulation105
5.2Casestudy106
5.2.1Geographicalbackgroundofthestudyarea106
5.2.2Grasslandfirescenarioreproduce108
5.2.3Thesimulationvisualizationofgrasslandfirespreadingscene108
5.3Theresultverificationofgrasslandfiredynamicspreading109
Chapter6Studyonfireriskassessmentofgrasslandbasedongrasslandtypes112
6.1Basictheoryofgrasslandfirerisk112
6.1.1Theformationmechanismofgrasslandfirerisk112
6.1.2Theassessmentframeworkgrasslandfirerisk115
6.2Thestudyareaanddatasources115
6.2.1Overviewofstudyarea115
6.2.2Datasourcesandprocessing116
6.3Theindexsystemofgrasslandfireriskassessment117
6.3.1Grasslandfirehazardanalysis117
6.3.2Grasslandfireexposureanalysis122
6.3.3Grasslandfirevulnerabilityanalysis122
6.3.4Grasslandfireriskassessmentindexsystem122
6.3.5Theindexsystemofgrasslandfireriskassessment122
6.3.6Grasslandfireriskindexweightdetermination123
6.4ThecomprehensiveassessmentofgrasslandfireriskinthenorthofChina124
6.4.1AssessmentofhazardofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah125
6.4.2AssessmentofexposureofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah125
6.4.3AssessmentofvulnerabilityofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah127
6.4.4AssessmentofmanagementablilityofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah127
6.4.5TheresultsofcomprehensiveassessmentofgrasslandfireriskinthenorthofCinah128
6.5Dynamicriskassessmentofgrasslandfirebasedonfirebehaviorsimulation131
6.5.1Theconceptualframeworkfordynamicriskassessmentofgrasslandfire131
6.5.2Grasslandfireriskassessmentindexsystem131
6.5.3Grasslandfireriskassessmentmodel133
6.6Theverificationofgrasslandfireriskassessmentresults138
6.6.1Theverificationofstaticriskassessmentresults138
6.6.2Theverificationofdynamicriskassessmentresults139
6.6.3Sensitivityanalysis141
6.6.4Uncertaintyanalysisofriskassessmentresults146
Chapter7Applicationofgrasslandfireriskassessmentinfiremanagement147
7.1Applicationstudyofgrasslandfireriskassessment147
7.1.1Grasslandfireriskmanagementprocess147
7.1.2Applicationofstaticgrasslandfireriskassessment148
7.1.3Applicationofdynamicgrasslandfireriskassessment150
7.2Thestudyonthecouplingofdynamicsimulationandriskassessmentofgrasslandfire150
7.2.1Thestudyonthecouplingofstaticanddynamicgrasslandfireriskassessment150
7.2.2Thestudyonthefireriskassessmentofgrasslandandgrasslandfirespread151
Chapter8Conclusionandprospect1538.1Results153
8.2Theprospectandfuturework154
8.2.1Thenextresearchfocus154
8.2.2Applicationstudyofgrasslandfireriskassessment155
8.2.3Theassessmentofgrasslandfireecology155
References156
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