目錄
前言
第一部分典型海岸帶沖淤演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析1
提要3
引言5
第一章現(xiàn)代黃河三角洲沖淤演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析6
1.1現(xiàn)代黃河三角洲沖淤演變趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)6
1.2現(xiàn)代黃河三角洲沖淤演變影響分析17
1.3應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施19
第二章長(zhǎng)江三角洲沖淤演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析20
2.1長(zhǎng)江三角洲沖淤演變趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)20
2.2長(zhǎng)江三角洲沖淤演變影響分析33
2.3應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施40
第三章廢黃河三角洲沖淤演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析41
3.1廢黃河三角洲海岸演變趨勢(shì)41
3.2廢黃河三角洲海岸演變的影響分析52
3.3應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施57
參考文獻(xiàn)58
第二部分典型海岸帶鹽水入侵演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析65
提要67
引言68
第四章長(zhǎng)江河口鹽水入侵演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析71
4.1長(zhǎng)江河口三維鹽水入侵模式的建立和驗(yàn)證71
4.2氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)長(zhǎng)江河口鹽水入侵的影響預(yù)測(cè)82
4.3鹽水入侵對(duì)長(zhǎng)江河口淡水資源的影響及對(duì)策111
第五章珠江河口鹽水入侵演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析120
5.1珠江口三維鹽水入侵模式的建立和驗(yàn)證120
5.2氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)珠江河口鹽水入侵的影響預(yù)測(cè)137
5.3鹽水入侵演變對(duì)珠江河口淡水資源、生態(tài)環(huán)境的影響及對(duì)策156
參考文獻(xiàn)165
第三部分典型海岸帶生態(tài)系統(tǒng)景觀格局演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析169
提要171
引言173
第六章長(zhǎng)江河口鹽沼濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)景觀演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析175
6.1長(zhǎng)江口鹽沼濕地概況175
6.2海平面上升情景下長(zhǎng)江口鹽沼濕地景觀的演變趨勢(shì)177
6.3長(zhǎng)江口鹽沼濕地景觀演變的潛在影響188
6.4應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施198
第七章廣西典型紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)景觀演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析200
7.1典型紅樹林分布區(qū)區(qū)域概況200
7.2紅樹林景觀演變對(duì)海平面上升響應(yīng)的原理淺析203
7.3海平面上升情景下典型紅樹林景觀格局演變趨勢(shì)205
7.4典型紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)景觀演變的原因分析236
7.5紅樹林景觀演變的潛在影響240
7.6應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施245
第八章海南三亞珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)景觀演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析249
8.1三亞灣區(qū)域概況249
8.2溫度和海水酸度對(duì)珊瑚影響的機(jī)理淺析251
8.3溫度和海水酸度升高背景下三亞灣珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)景觀演變趨勢(shì)253
8.4珊瑚礁景觀演變的潛在影響260
8.5應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施260
參考文獻(xiàn)261
第四部分典型河口水域漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)演變趨勢(shì)與影響分析273
提要275
引言277
第九章氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)資源演變趨勢(shì)279
9.1氣候變化情景與動(dòng)態(tài)生物氣候分室模型279
9.2氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)資源演變趨勢(shì)285
第十章氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)健康演變趨勢(shì)305
10.1漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)健康評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系305
10.2氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)健康演變趨勢(shì)308
第十一章氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的應(yīng)對(duì)策略314
11.1氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的響應(yīng)分析314
11.2氣候變化情景下典型河口水域漁業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的應(yīng)對(duì)策略317
參考文獻(xiàn)320
第五部分典型海岸帶脆弱性評(píng)估與應(yīng)用示范325
提要327
引言329
第十二章海平面上升影響下長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估331
12.1長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)331
12.2海平面上升影響下長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估模式333
12.3長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系與方法334
12.4海平面上升影響下長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性空間評(píng)估338
12.5應(yīng)用SLAMM模型評(píng)價(jià)海平面上升對(duì)長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地影響341
12.6應(yīng)對(duì)海平面上升對(duì)長(zhǎng)江口濱海濕地影響的對(duì)策與措施347
第十三章海平面上升影響下廣西海岸帶紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估351
13.1廣西海岸帶紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)351
13.2海平面上升影響下廣西海岸帶紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估模式352
13.3廣西海岸帶紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系與脆弱性指數(shù)355
13.4海平面上升影響下廣西海岸帶紅樹林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性空間評(píng)估360
13.5應(yīng)對(duì)海平面上升對(duì)廣西海岸帶紅樹林影響的對(duì)策與措施364
第十四章氣候變化影響下海南三亞珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估368
14.1海南三亞珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)369
14.2氣候變化影響下珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估模式370
14.3珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系與脆弱性指數(shù)371
14.4氣候變化影響下海南三亞珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性空間評(píng)估374
14.5應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化對(duì)海南三亞珊瑚礁生態(tài)系統(tǒng)影響的對(duì)策與措施378
第十五章海平面上升疊加風(fēng)暴潮影響下上海市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性評(píng)估379
15.1上海地區(qū)自然地理?xiàng)l件380
15.2上海市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)概況380
15.3海平面上升疊加風(fēng)暴潮導(dǎo)致的洪澇災(zāi)害情景模擬383
15.4海平面上升疊加風(fēng)暴潮影響下上海市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性評(píng)估模式389
15.5社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系與脆弱性指數(shù)392
15.6海平面上升疊加風(fēng)暴潮影響下上海市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)脆弱性空間評(píng)估398
15.7海平面上升疊加風(fēng)暴潮導(dǎo)致的洪澇災(zāi)害的應(yīng)對(duì)策略與措施401
參考文獻(xiàn)406
Contents
Foreword
Part I Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the typical coastal zones1
Abstract3
Introduction5
Chapter 1 Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the Yellow River Delta6
1.1Evolution trend of erosion and deposition in the Yellow River Delta6
1.2Influence of the Yellow River Delta erosion deposition evolution17
1.3Countermeasures 19
Chapter 2 Evolution trend and influence analysis of erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Delta20
2.1Evolution trend of erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Delta20
2.2Influence of the Yangtze Delta erosion deposition evolution33
2.3Countermeasures40
Chapter 3 Evolution trend and influence of erosion and deposition in the abandoned Yellow River Delta41
3.1Evolution trend of the abandoned Yellow River Delta coast41
3.2Influence of the abandoned Yellow River Delta coast evolution52
3.3Countermeasures57
Reference58
Part Two Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the typical coastal zones65
Abstract 67
Introduction 68
Chapter 4 Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary71
4.1Establishment and validation of the three dimension saltwater intrusion model in the Yangtze Estuary71
4.2Prediction of the influence of climate change and human activity on saltwater intrusion in the Yangtze Estuary82
4.3Influence and countermeasure of saltwater intrusion on freshwater resource in the Yangtze Estuary111
Chapter 5 Evolution trend and influence of the saltwater intrusion in the Pearl Estuary120
5.1Establishment and validation of the three dimension saltwater intrusion model in the Pearl Estuary120
5.2Prediction of the influence of climate change and human activity on saltwater intrusion in the Pearl Estuary137
5.3Influence and countermeasure of saltwater intrusion on freshwater resource and ecological environment in the Pearl Estuary156
References165
Part III Landscape pattern evolution trend and influence in the typical coastal zone169
Abstract171
Introduction173
Chapter 6 Landscape changes and influence of wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze Estuary175
6.1Overview of the salt marshes of the Yangtze River Estuary175
6.2Landscape changes of wetland ecosystem in the Yangtze Estuary under scenarios of sea level rise177
6.3Potential influences of wetland landscape changes in the Yangtze Estuary188
6.4Countermeasures 198
Chapter 7 Landscape changes and influence of typical mangrove ecosystem in Guangxi 200
7.1Overview of typical mangrove ecosystem in Guangxi 200
7.2Principle responses of mangrove landscapes under sea level rise203
7.3Landscape changes of typical mangrove ecosystem under scenarios of sea level rise205
7.4Driving forces of typical mangrove landscape changes236
7.5Potential effects of mangrove landscape changes240
7.6Countermeasures245
Chapter 8 Landscape changes and influence analysis of coral reef ecosystem in the Sanya Bay， Hainan249
8.1Overview of coral reef ecosystem in the Sanya Bay， Hainan249
8.2Principle effects of seawater temperature and acidity on coral growth 251
8.3Landscape changes of coral reefs in the Sanya Bay with the seawater temperature and acidity rises253
8.4Potential effects of coral reef landscape changes in the Sanya Bay260
8.5Countermeasures260
References261
Part IV Evolution trend and influence analysis of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuarine waters273
Abstract275
Introduction277
Chapter 9 Evolution trend of fishery resources in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios279
9.1Climate change scenarios and Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM)279
9.2Evolution trend of fishery resources in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios285
Chapter 10 Evolution trend of fishery ecosystem health under climate change scenarios305
10.1The indicator system of fishery ecosystem health305
10.2Evolution trend of fishery ecosystem health under climate change scenarios308
Chapter 11 Countermeasures for sustainable development of fishery ecosystem in typical estuaries under climate change scenarios 314
11.1Response analysis of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios314
11.2Countermeasures for sustainable development of fishery ecosystem in the typical estuaries under climate change scenarios317
References320
Part Five Vulnerability assessment for the typical coastal zones and its application325
Abstract327
Introduction329
Chapter 12 Vulnerability assessment of the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under the influence of sea level rise331
12.1The wetland ecosystems in the Yangtze Estuary331
12.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under the influence of sea level rise333
12.3The indicator system and methodology for vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands334
12.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands under influence of sea level rise338
12.5The impact evaluation of sea level rise on the Yangtze Estuarine wetlands using the SLAMM model341
12.6The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze Estuarine wetland347
Chapter 13 Vulnerability assessment of the mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi under the scenarios of sea level rise 351
13.1The mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi351
13.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the mangrove ecosystems in Guangxi under the influence of sea level rise 352
13.3The vulnerability assessment indicator system and index for evaluating the mangroves in Guangxi355
13.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the mangroves in Guangxi under the influence of sea level rise360
13.5The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise on the mangroves in Guangxi364
Chapter 14 Vulnerability assessment of the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan under the influence of sea level rise368
14.1The coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan 369
14.2The model for vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems to climate changes370
14.3The indicator system and index for vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems371
14.4Spatial vulnerability assessment on the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan to climate changes374
14.5The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of climate changes on the coral reef ecosystems in Sanya， Hainan378
Chapter 15 Assessment of socio economic vulnerability of Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges379
15.1The natural and geographical conditions of Shanghai380
15.2The general socio economic status of Shanghai380
15.3The projections of flooding risk caused by sea level rise and associated storm surges383
15.4The assessment model for socio economic vulnerability in Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges389
15.5The indicator system and vulnerability index for socio economic vulnerability assessment 392
15.6Spatial assessment of the socio economic vulnerability in Shanghai to sea level rise and associated storm surges398
15.7The countermeasures to mitigate the impacts of flooding risks caused by sea level rise and associated storm surges401
References406