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數據、模型與決策（英文版·第12版）（管理科學與工程經典叢書） 
定 價：79 元 叢書名：管理科學與工程經典叢書
9 7 2 8 6 7 9 3 6 0 5 0 8 
本書是一本英文影印版教材，原著是由美國決策科學學會前會長伯納德•W.泰勒編寫的一本經典著作。本書具有以下特色：
1．對枯燥、復雜和技術化的數學問題用簡明易懂的語言予以解釋，兼顧嚴謹的數理邏輯。 2．突出建模分析框架和基礎邏輯的講授和訓練，在某種程度上實現了藝術與科學的有機融合。 3．課后習題豐富，并配有網絡題庫，供自學者加強訓練，及時檢查對理論模型及其求解方法的掌握程度。 第12版把修訂重點放在企業(yè)和組織的最新技術發(fā)展上，增加了商業(yè)分析（第1章）、項目風險（第8章）以及數據挖掘（第14章）等內容。
伯納德•W．泰勒（Bernard W. Taylor Ⅲ） 美國弗吉尼亞理工大學商學院教授，長期擔任商業(yè)信息技術系系主任。編著或合著的《數據、模型與決策》《運營管理》《管理科學》多次修訂再版，多次獲得學校與學院的優(yōu)秀教學成果獎，曾擔任美國決策科學學會會長。
Preface i
1Management Science 1 The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving 2 Time Out: for Pioneers in Management Science 5 Management Science Application: Room Pricing with Management Science at Marriott 6 Management Science and Business Analytics 7 Model Building: Break-Even Analysis 8 Computer Solution 12 Management Science Modeling Techniques 15 Management Science Application: The Application of Management Science with Spreadsheets 16 Business Usage of Management Science Techniques 18 Management Science Application: Management Science in Health Care 19 Management Science Application: Allocating Seat Capacity on Indian Railways Using Linear Programming 32 Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models 32 Management Science Application: Renewable Energy Investment Decisions at GE Energy 44 A Minimization Model Example 44 Management Science Application: Determining Optimal Fertilizer Mixes at Soquimich (South America) 48 Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems 50 Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems 53 Summary 54 • Example Problem Solutions 54 • Problems 58 • Case Problems 60 3Linear Programming: Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis 63 Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems 20 Summary 21 • Problems 22 • Case Problems 24 2Linear Programming: Model Formulation and Graphical Solution 27 Model Formulation 28 A Maximization Model Example 28 Time Out: for George B. Dantzig 29 Computer Solution 64 Management Science Application: Scheduling Air Ambulance Service in Ontario (Canada) 69 Management Science Application: Improving Profitability at Norske Skog with Linear Programming 70 Sensitivity Analysis 71 Summary 82 • Example Problem Solution 82 • Problems 85 • Case Problems 89 i iiCONTENTS 4Linear Programming: Modeling Examples 92 A Product Mix Example 93 Time Out: for George B. Dantzig 98 A Diet Example 98 An Investment Example 101 Management Science Application: A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at GE Asset Management 106 A Marketing Example 107 A Transportation Example 111 A Blend Example 114 A Multiperiod Scheduling Example 118 Management Science Application: Linear Programming Blending Applications in the Petroleum Industry 119 Management Science Application: Employee Scheduling with Management Science121 A Data Envelopment Analysis Example 123 Management Science Application: Evaluating American Red Cross Chapters Using DEA 125 Summary 127 • Example Problem Solution 128 • Problems 130 • Case Problems 141 5Integer Programming 146 Integer Programming Models 147 Management Science Application: Selecting Volunteer Teams at Eli Lilly to Serve in Impoverished Communities 150 Integer Programming Graphical Solution 150 Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows 152 Time Out: for Ralph E. Gomory 153 Management Science Application: Scheduling Appeals Court Sessions in Virginia with Integer Programming 156 Management Science Application: Forming Business Case Student Teams at Indiana University 161 0–1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples 161 Management Science Application: A Set Covering Model for Determining Fire Station Locations in Istanbul 170 Summary 170 • Example Problem Solution 171• Problems 171 • Case Problems 175 6Transportaion, Transshipment, and Assignment Problems 185 The Transportation Model 186 Time Out: for Frank L. Hitchcock and Tjalling C. Koopmans 188 Management Science Application: Reducing Transportation Costs in the California Cut Flower Industry 189 Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem 189 Management Science Application: Analyzing Container Traffic Potential at the Port of Davisville (RI) 195 Management Science Application: Transporting Mail at the U.S. Postal Service 199 The Assignment Model 199 Computer Solution of an Assignment Problem 200 Management Science Application: Supplying Empty Freight Cars at Union Pacific Railroad 203 Management Science Application: Assigning Umpire Crews at Professional Tennis Tournaments 204 Summary 205 • Example Problem Solution 205 • Problems 206 • Case Problems 213 7Network Flow Models 222 Network Components 223 The Shortest Route Problem 224 The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem 232 Management Science Application: Determining Optimal Milk Collection Routes in Italy 235 The Maximal Flow Problem 236 Time Out: for E. W. Dijkstra, L. R. Ford, Jr., and D. R. Fulkerson 237 Management Science Application: Distributing Railway Cars to Customers at CSX 238 Summary 243 • Example Problem Solution 243 • Problems 245 • Case Problems 251 8Project Management 258 The Elements of Project Management 259 Management Science Application: Google, Facebook, and Apple “Cloud” Projects261 Time Out: for Henry Gantt 265 Management Science Application: An Interstate Highway Construction Project in Virginia 267 CPM/PERT 268 Time Out: for Morgan R. Walker, James E. Kelley, Jr., and D. G. Malcolm 270 Probabilistic Activity Times 277 Management Science Application: Global Construction Mega-Projects 283 Microsoft Project 284 Project Crashing and Time–Cost Trade-Off 288 Management Science Application: Reconstructing the Pentagon After 9/11 292 Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model 293 Summary 300 • Example Problem Solution 301 • Problems 303 • Case Problems 308 9Multicriteria Decision Making 312 Goal Programming 313 Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming 317 Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM for Windows and Excel 320 Management Science Application: Developing Television Advertising Sales Plans at NBC 320 CONTENTS iii Time Out: for Abraham Charnes and William W. Cooper 324 The Analytical Hierarchy Process 327 Management Science Application: Selecting Sustainable Transportation Routes Across the Pyrenees Using AHP 327 Management Science Application: Ranking Twentieth-Century Army Generals Using AHP 334 Scoring Models 337 Management Science Application: A Scoring Model for Determining U.S. Army Installation Regions 339 Summary 339 • Example Problem Solutions 340 • Problems 343 • Case Problems 353 10Nonlinear Programming 357 Nonlinear Profit Analysis 358 Constrained Optimization 361 Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel 363 A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints 367 Management Science Application: Making Solar Power Decisions at Lockheed Martin with Nonlinear Programming 368 Nonlinear Model Examples 369 Summary 374 • Example Problem Solution 375 • Problems 375 • Case Problems 377 11Decision Analysis 379 Components of Decision Making 380 Decision Making without Probabilities 381 Management Science Application: Planning for Terrorist Attacks and Epidemics in Los Angeles County with Decision Analysis 388 Decision Making with Probabilities 388 Decision Analysis With Additional Information 402 Management Science Application: Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant 408 iv CONTENTS Utility 409 Summary 410 • Example Problem Solution 411 • Problems 414 • Case Problems 420 12Queuing Analysis 425 Elements of Waiting Line Analysis 426 The Single-Server Waiting Line System 427 Time Out: for Agner Krarup Erlang 428 Management Science Application: Using Queuing Analysis to Design Health Centers in Abu Dhabi 435 Undefined and Constant Service Times 436 Finite Queue Length 439 Management Science Application: Providing Telephone Order Service in the Retail Catalog Business 442 Finite Calling Population 442 The Multiple-Server Waiting Line 445 Management Science Application: Making Sure 911 Calls Get Through at AT&T448 Additional Types of Queuing Systems 450 Summary 451 • Example Problem Solution 451 • Problems 453 • Case Problems 456 13Simulation 459 The Monte Carlo Process 460 Time Out: for John Von Neumann 465 Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets 465 Simulation of a Queuing System 470 Management Science Application: Planning for Catastrophic Disease Outbreaks Using Simulation 473 Continuous Probability Distributions 474 Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results 479 Management Science Application: Predicting Somalian Pirate Attacks Using Simulation 480 Crystal Ball 481 Verification of the Simulation Model 488 Areas of Simulation Application488 Summary 489 • Example Problem Solution 490 • Problems 493 • Case Problems 496 14Forecasting 500 Forecasting Components 501 Management Science Application: Forecasting Advertising Demand at NBC 503 Time Series Methods 504 Management Science Application: Forecasting Empty Shipping Containers at CSAV (Chile) 508 Management Science Application: Forecasting at Heineken USA 513 Forecast Accuracy 516 Time Series Forecasting Using Excel 520 Management Science Application: Demand Forecasting at Zara 521 Regression Methods 524 Management Science Application: An Airline Passenger Forecasting Model 528 Data Mining 533 Summary 534 • Example Problem Solutions 534 • Problems 537 • Case Problems 544 15Inventory Management 548 Elements of Inventory Management 549 Management Science Application: Inventory Optimization at Procter & Gamble551 Inventory Control Systems 552 Time Out: for Ford Harris 553 Economic Order Quantity Models 553 The Basic EOQ Model 554 The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt 559 The EOQ Model with Shortages 562 Management Science Application: Determining Inventory Ordering Policy at Dell 565 EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows 565 EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM566 Quantity Discounts 567 Management Science Application: Quantity Discount Orders at Mars 570 Reorder Point 571 Determining Safety Stock by Using Service Levels 573 CONTENTS v Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory Appendix A Normal and Chi-Square Tables 584 Appendix B Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet 586 Appendix C The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 590 Glossary 592
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